BITCOIN POWER CONSUMPTION.INFO
  • Home
  • Breakdown
  • J/THash
  • Climate
  • Water use
  • ESG
  • eWaste
  • Demand/response
  • Banking

Bitcoin power consumption & environmental impact

   As a keen environmentalist I wanted to know the truth. Whilst bitcoin mining does have undeniable associated CO₂ emissions (greatly exaggerated by vested interests) the more obscure environmental upside of Bitcoin is potentially huge ! Money, Finance, Energy & Climate are far more intertwined than most realise. Fixing money may be an essential step to fixing climate.
Bitcoin power consumption = World mining Hash rate x Average mining efficiency
Preview
(calculating) ExaHash x (calculating) J/TH = (calculating) GW

Bitcoin Mining Annual Power Consumption = Watts x Hours

= (Calculating) TWh

= (NetCO)% of Global electricity consumption (29,479TWh)

Bitcoin Mining Annual CO₂ Emissions = Power x gCO₂/kWh

(Calculating) x = (Calculating) MtCO₂

= (NetCOg)% of Global emissions

(Calculating) - (Calculating) Mitigation = Net (NetCO) MtCO₂

= (NetCO)% of Global emissions (54,430MT)

Picture
   Although Bitcoin's power consumption (Light green line) is climbing, this may be at a peak due to -
  • Vast improvements in ASIC efficiency
  • Market saturation.
  • Halvings culling off some of the less efficient mining operations
  • Some data centers switching to AI

​   Bitcoins net annual emissions (blue line) have reached a plateau & may even be on the wane due to mitigation such as -
  • Improvements in overall Grid carbon intensity
  • Mining with Methane
  • Home/ Business heating
  • Demand response schemes taking advantage of cheap clean but intermittent renewables

The red line is showing what is possible due to banking sector curtailment which may already make Bitcoins emissions net negative !

   The large drop in emissions during 2021 is due to the China mining ban followed by the subsequent move of much of the hash rate to the US where grid carbon intensity is generally lower.
   All calculations are 
Bitcoin BTC ONLY & the inputs constantly changing therefore so do the answers.
   For comparison the Three Gorges Dam the largest dam in the world has a generating capacity of 22.5 GW or 1.4 x Bitcoin
Picture
All Currencies have an environmental cost.
  • Paper money 💵 💷 💶 AKA the “Petro Dollar” is backed by Oil, The US military & Banks. The Military is the worlds biggest polluter & Banks require Electricity, Fossil fuel for heating, vehicles, staff, staff travel, helicopters & private jets (for some reason)
  • Gold requires mining, consuming vast amounts of fossil fuels, environmental destruction, vehicles & transportation.
  • Bartering has the hassle of converting cows to chickens & remembering who owes what to who and maybe having to remind them when they conveniently forget.
   Bitcoins emission are much lower than the above and likely to fall due to successive halving's, second & 3rd layers. Bitcoin already looks like the only viable world currency with the lowest emissions.
Picture

​Where does Bitcoins energy go ?

Block reward (mining new coins into existence) has by far has the greatest energy consumption -proof of work- consumes roughly 98% of all bitcoin energy consumption, next Transaction fees roughly 2%, then Nodes​ consuming very little.
Block reward ≈ 98%​​
Mining gold requires hard work, so does Bitcoin
- Proof Of Work -

Block reward currently 3.125 BTC
Picture
Transaction fees ≈ 2%​
Additional reward for processing transactions. Like melting, distributing gold bars and coins

Typically 0.02 - 0.5 BTC per block
Picture
Bitcoin nodes ≈ 0.0014%​
1000s of nodes storing & verifying every transaction ever.



Picture

 When the gold's gone most miners will pack up and go home leaving just the accountants


The Halving

Picture
   By 2028 over 98% coins will be mined & by 2140 virtually all coins will be mined. Subsequent Halving's of the block reward every 4 years coupled with tech advances will make it much easier to simply buy rather than mine.

   Miners will be working for increasing transaction fees + a decreasing block reward, the "Gold Rush" will be over, most "Gold Miners" will go home.

How much energy per transaction ?

   Energy per transaction was once quite rightly described by Cambridge University as "not helpful". Why ?, because the average bitcoin on chain transaction is $100,000 - $150,000 compared to Visa's $97 so bitcoin is doing a lot more work per TX.
   Energy per dollar would be be far more helpful when comparing efficiency
or
   Emissions per Dollar for climate purposes. 

Transaction EFFICIENCY TLDR

   Bearing in mind this is a Log scale Bitcoin is looking potentially orders of magnitude more efficient, even if we forget about the emissions accrued from banking investments.
How many gCO₂ does it take to send $1,000,000 ?
Picture
   Comparing efficiencies of new & old technologies is difficult, especially as bitcoin is still evolving. When measuring Banking, should we account for the resulting emissions from finance ? I think yes, because due to inflation caused by money printing you are effectively forced to invest just to maintain value rather than just saving. I do not think it fair to award all of the emissions resulting from investment, so I've only award 10% (shown in error bars). Either way Bitcoin wins by orders of magnitude.
  • BPC denotes my estimates for Lightning (more detail below) & Banking
  • None custodial - e.g. Wallet of Satoshi type app / database
  • Grok = A.I. second opinion.
  • For comparison I've included a petrol car driving 100 miles)

How much energy to mine 1 Bitcoin ?

It takes roughly 842,549 kWh to mine 1 Bitcoin.
Picture

On-Chain Bitcoin TRANSACTION footprint

   As bitcoin has evolved, one transaction could contain an unlimited number of Lightning TX's or Batched TX's. So when comparing Bitcoin to Visa all these need to be taken into account.
   On chain transactions are more akin to settling between banks or countries. An armored van full of gold driving 20 miles may clock up the same carbon foot print as the BTC equivalent of £100,000 transaction. 
Picture
  • Average transaction value  ≈ £100,000
  • Consumes ≈ 8.1kWh ≈ (⚡️🚗  1/8 Tesla car full charge)
  • Carbon footprint ≈ 1,677g or (≈ 2 miles in Ford F150)
Picture

Layer 2 or Lightning

   Lightning transactions are for sending small amounts typically < $200. A lightning channel requires an on chain transaction to open locking up funds & then is ultimately closed requiring another transaction, this may happen years later having performed a virtually limitless amount of lightning transactions.
   1 Lightning transaction may "hop" using typically 1 to 5 lightning channels.

Example 1
​Steve to Alice
requires only 1 hop on a well used channel. The power requirements are added up on the bottom row below.

​Hop D-E (open 8.1kWh + close 8.1)= 16.2kWh
16.2 / 500,000 = 0.0000324kWh x 205g = 0.0066gCO₂/Hop
Way more efficient than Visa !

Example 2
Bob to Alice
requires
Requires 4 lightning hops -
Picture
Picture
Picture

Layer 3 or Non Custodial  Bitcoin

   These small off chain transactions are more comparable with a Visa transaction. Transactions on none custodial wallets such as Wallet of Satoshi (WOS) may never leave the WOS ecosystem. In the future we may simply call them "Banks" but with the minimum requirements of an App, data base and minimal staff. These transactions would have no more power requirements than a regular database and much lower carbon footprint than a regular bank.

   A Bitcoin "Bank" may open channels with another Banks & may only settle or close after years & millions transactions, or when the books look out of kilter. The main blockchain will be elevated to the very heart of world banking.

   It may not quite be what the OG Bitcoiners originally wanted (I.E. complete removal of Banks / intermediaries) but opening channels is essentially assigning liquidity (locking up funds), this will always require some human input, & it will ensure the heart of money is incorruptible. Banks will have to adapt or have their Kodak moment.

Energy Consumption factors

Drives up energy demand

  • Lower electricity price
  • Greater adoption
  • Higher mining fee returns
  • Subsidised electricity​

Drives down energy demand

  • Higher electricity price
  • Halving's = Less reward = less incentive to mine.
  • More efficient ASIC Technology
  • Higher ASIC price = More incentive to buy BTC rather than mine
  • Tax on mining
  • Tax on electricity
The inputs for these equations & Bitcoin are ever changing values and must not be taken as absolutes. I try to give my best estimates & update every 6 months.

Scaling Bitcoin

   On-Chain Bitcoin can only handle about 7 on-chain Transactions per second, to reach a world scale requires 10,000s TX/s. Scaling bitcoin with Lightning greatly increases this but not enough and requires locking up funds. Custodial (3rd party looks after your money) wallets can scale but are open to co-option or corruption. This is a hotly debated subject among the laser eyed Bitcoin maximalists. Solutions like -  cashu.me, Liquid, Fedimint, Cash.app or enuts.cash are now up and running.
   Economy of scale will be a strong centralizing force for apps like Wallet of Satoshi. Banks may simply resolve into apps accessing a database but with a very real possibility of bankruptcy, if they fail to balance the books.
   Some Bitcoiners, being used to unhindered direct access to on-chain transactions strongly reject custodial solutions, but others think it's not technically possible to scale bitcoin fully on-chain, so may have to concede some ground to custodial wallet solutions.
   In a fully Bitcoinized world some return to a banking model may be unavoidable but at least people will have the option NOT to have their savings held hostage & debased by the banks.
 * Custodial - Where a someone else holds custody to your funds, like a bank
 * None Custodial - You have custody of your funds

​Bitcoin & Proof Of Work

   Proof of work can mean many things not just more brute power. It can mean -
  • Better ASIC design (the primary driver of increasing hash rate) see graph
  • Finding the cheapest forms & location of power
  • Aiding power generation companies via curtailment of mining load when more power is needed for A/C during heat waves or cold spells etc
  • Monetization of waste heat for heating buildings, swimming pools greenhouses etc.
   In 2009 you could mine Bitcoin on a regular PC 97,000,000 J/THs. Mining now is only profitable on dedicated hardware such as a Bitmain S21 ASIC.

Mining equipment efficiency

Most efficient mining rigs on the market. 
Picture

Bitcoin vs EV's & the Grid

   As large loads on the grid increase, the more integrated they have to become. The last thing the grid needs is 2 million EVs plugging in during peek demand, or GW of electricity going to Bitcoin mining when it is required for A/C during a heat wave. Fortunately both these types of load can be, & already are very flexible in avoiding peek demand times.
​
   Global Electric Vehicle sales continue to grow exponentially with 28M EVs on the road in 2022.
   Here's a comparison of EV electricity consumption (Car + Bus + Lorry) vs Bitcoin electricity consumption. While the trajectory of EV electricity consumption is relatively easy to predict, Bitcoin is not so easy, many unknown factors like government policy.
Picture
   Contrary to Alex De Vries (Dogdyconomist) dogma - "bitcoin has wiped out the emission savings of switching to electric vehicles". As you can see this has never been even nearly true.
​   The emission savings of switching from Banking to Bitcoin could be MUCH larger !
Picture
   Which will be the perfect companion for electrical power generation ? Predominantly EVs but both are already happening, all that is required is a variable price signal from the supplier, Miners & EV chargers will happily gobble up all that cheap clean electricity but EVs have the flexibility advantage.

EV Pros
  • EVs can Pause charging when load is high ( Demand/response )
  • EVs are idle for 90% of their life offering greater flexibility as to when they charge, possibly going weeks without need
  • EVs will be a MUCH bigger load than Bitcoin. As an 2 X EV driver I know they account for half of my total energy consumption.
  • EVs can incentivise renewable build out
  • EVs are already responding to cheap off peak electricity on a large scale by charging at night for 1/4 the price
  • EVs can return electricity to the grid at peek times (Vehicle To Grid)
EV cons
  • Can not re-locate to stranded methane generation.

Bitcoin pros
  • Large scale Bitcoin mining is / can easily be integrated / co-located with power generation allowing greater coordination
  • Bitcoin can incentivise renewable build out
  • Small scale demand response such as home mining for heat can be turned off during peek demand with variable tariff schemes such as Octopus saving sessions and Octoplus

Bitcoin cons
  • Industrial scale Bitcoin miners need much greater up time (>80%) to remain profitable.
  • Despite all the "BITCOIN WILL BOIL THE OCEANS 😱" FUD, Bitcoins Power Consumption / Emissions are not currently, & may never be that big of a deal. Is that a con ? 🤷🏻‍♂️

Interesting Facts

  • If entire Bitcoin mining network consisted of the most efficient miner (Bitmain S23 Hyd 580TH) with an efficiency of 9.5 J/TH, the network would consume 9.5 GW (World hash rate 1000 Exahash x 9.5 J/TH)
  • It would consume 83.3 TWh / year (9.5 x 8766 hours/year)
  • It would require- 1.7 Million ASIC units (1,000,000,000TH / 580TH)

​Sources Links & Related Articles

World Electricity consumption - ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix
Global Green House emissions - ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions
​
Bitcoin Mining Council - bitcoinminingcouncil.com
Miner Daily - Moore’s Law vs Bitcoin ASICs and Network Growth
Bitcoin Stats - Bitinfocharts

Check out the - bitcoin mining museum
Hi, thanks for reading !
My goals are-
A/ Find solutions to the climate emergency (which may partly be Bitcoin).
​B/ present the most accurate assessment of Bitcoins power consumption, emissions & climate impact & continuously update & improve this website.
Please link to, retweet or send a link to friends and colleagues.
Zap Me!
Bolt 12:
More Options
Picture
Follow me on X.com
@7Bluerabbits
Picture
Follow me on Nostr via
iris.to - snort.social - Damus app - Primal
npub1l79hvcyl23f90ers7xqh7zjzmm7knj7fqf6he3lhnfyc3gfuz7lqlfsqkt
nostrplebs directory

Dissertation schreiben lassen
  • Home
  • Breakdown
  • J/THash
  • Climate
  • Water use
  • ESG
  • eWaste
  • Demand/response
  • Banking