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World Bitcoin mining average ASIC efficiency

Bitcoin ASIC mining average is ≈ 19.2J/TH (November 2024)

   Here are few methods to calculate world average J/TH. If we know this figure, a quick calculation gives us Total World Bitcoin mining power being consumed.

Calculate J/THash - Method A


​Power =  World hash rate x Average J/TH

   The green column is advertised efficiency measured in Joules per TeraHash JTH, most efficient at the top.
​   This spread sheet calculates -

  • Bitcoin world average mining efficiency in J/TH (Joules per TeraHash) {top right light blue}.
  • World total bitcoin ASICs ever produced
  • Total mass of all ASICs ever produced
  • Total mass of scrapped ASICs
Mining equipment performance improvements-
  • Amazing performance     < 12 J/TH yet to be released may be being "tested" by the manufacturers
  • Newly released             12 - 18 J/TH
  • Older less profitable    18 - 30 J/TH
  • Obsolete                        30 - 80 J/TH
  • Really Old Junk           80 - 765 J/TH

Key factors

  • ASIC Efficiency
  • Power consumption
  • ASIC Power Mode (High Medium Low)
  • After market software such as Braiins can increase efficiency by up to 30%
  • Immersion mining can increase efficiency by up to 25% or allow to be over clocked
  • Quantity produced - Mostly educated guess but quantities highlighted in yellow have solid evidence (links below)
  • Functional percentage - As mines get older they wear out.
  • UP time - 10,000 brand new mines in an industrial mining unit would have much more up time say 98% than an amateur using a 5 year old ASIC for heating say 30%
Miners can then alter the software and or use emersion mining methods to improve efficiency or increase Hash rate.
   Many miners will just run them standard, others miners may over clock them in an attempt to get a quick return on investment or run them slow & efficient to lower power costs.
​   Functioning quantities & up time etc are then tweaked to match the World hash rate. The world Average J/TH can then be calculated & thus Bitcoins overall power consumption.

Quantities

   Finding how many of which model have been sold / are still in operation is tricky. In an ever changing picture occasionally we get glimpses of sales in the 10-100s of thousands of units (Yellow highlight).
​   Quantity , Model & J/TH Links to sources below.

Calculate J/THash - Method B

   Serious miners are only going to use the most recent/ efficient mining ASICs (usually from Bitmain), so to ascertain the all important J/TH figure its fairly easy to look at the graph & estimate the average for the last 3 or 4 years, also bearing in mind there will probably be a few warehouses full of next generation 10J/TH ASICs - not on the market but "on test".

Calculate J/THash - Method C

   Some mining companies straight up tell you the all important average J/TH .
Power = World Hash rate x J/TH
gives us the Power being consumed assuming all mining outfits are averaging around this figure.

Marathon 22.7 J/TH August 2024     (22.7 x 650,000,000TH = 14.8GW)
TeraWulf 25.7 J/TH July    2023.        (25.7 x 360,000,000TH = 9.3GW)

   Others announce their hash rate & power consumption. A quick calculation gives us their average Joules per THash, this is likely to be inaccurate because they may like to brag "we have 100MW of infrastructure" but may only be using 60MW, or "we have 5 ExaHash" but only have 3 switched on. This gives clues to the big mining companies efficiency. Some companies execute Demand Response, they would obviously curtail their most inefficient machines first resulting in greater overall efficiency.

​Disproving other wild energy claims

United Nations University Study

​United Nations University claim -
"In the 2020-2021 period, the global BTC mining network devoured 173 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity, “
​Claimed Power consumption = 173 TWh/year
Hours a year = 8766
Watts = 19.7 GW
World Hash (2020-2021)= 125,000,000TH/s
​173,000GWh / 8766 = 19.7 GW
19,700,000,000W / 125,000,000TH =
​158 W/TH = ❌ Incorrect
   As we can see from the best on market graph, during 2020-2021 the best on market to would be 32 W/TH and the only just economically viable would be around 96 W/TH, so the average would be somewhere in between.

   The deceptive report constantly compares compares apples to bananas, and in a staggeringly unscientific way neglects to make it clear that "2020 - 2021 period" actually means a 2 full years energy and emissions. A bit like saying my car does 123 miles per 2 gallons 🙄
   Also debunked by Margot Paez at the Bitcoin policy institute

Cambridge

   One of the most widely quoted estimates from Cambridge University. They take a bit of a shot gun approach quoting Low - Medium - High estimates ranging from 57 - 120 - 196 TWh per year which straight away tells me they don’t really know. However we shall do the maths for the middle estimate.
​Claimed Power consumption = 120 TWh/year
Hours a year = 8766
Watts = 13.7 GW
World Hash = 300,000,000TH/s
​120,000GWh / 8766 = 13.7 GW
13,700,000,000W / 300,000,000TH =
​45 J/TH = ❌ Incorrect
   If we refer back to the spreadsheet’s efficiency column (green shades) we can see this level of ASIC operating efficiency is at best so so, with the vast majority of hash rate way above this. In fact 45 J/TH is now so far down the green column it's now in the brown area.

(these calculations are accurate for the claimed values at the time of Cambridge's publication - February  2023 )

Alex de Vries - Digiconomist

   In 2020 the widely quoted & practically the only thing you are allowed to find on the internet Alex de Vries claimed 
205 TWh/year (or 205,000 GWh). His discredited calculations take no account of CAPEX (CAPital EXpenditure). ASICs & warehouses cost A LOT of money but do not factor anywhere in his equations. He has even worse estimates for Water use & eWaste (disproved in the links). This employee of the Dutch central bank (no conflict of interest there then 🤔) seems to have made a career out of outlandish claims.
​
​​​Claimed Power consumption = 205 TWh/year
Hours a year = 8766
Watts = 23.4 GW
World hash (then) = 120 ExaHash
205,000 GWh / 8766 = 23.4 GW
23,400,000,000W / 120,000,000TH = 
194J/Th = 🤡 Utterly ridiculous !
   In 2020 the typical ASIC efficiency coming on to the market was around 29 -38 J/TH (green column) ,such as the Bitmain T19 84TH - 37.5 j/TH

   Also currently claims 51,000 tonnes of e-waste every year ?!! More like 250 tonnes/year. See my calculation for Bitcoin e-Waste.

​Conclusions

  • Newer more efficient ASICs 12 - 24 J/TH will dominate the bulk of the hash rate.
  • Hash rate has increased mostly due to more efficient machines - NOT necessarily more power consumption.
  • During price rises older mining gear may be turned back on but new ASICs replace old as shelf space & power distribution are at a premium.
  • If you were the leading ASIC manufacturer (Bitmain), would you - immediately sell the golden goose - or - would you keep the superior next generation ASICs to your self for a few months ?
  • Ironically, subsidised electricity prices & grants in the US have Increased Bitcoin mining profitability and hence contributed to Bitcoins emissions.
  • Fiat money pushes energy use higher blackrock-gives-bankrupt-bitcoin-miner-core-scientific-a-new-17m-loan even Bitcoin is not immune to the fiat fire hose.
  • The existing money establishments do not like Bitcoin and will deliberately spread misinformation to put people off.
   Then there's this doozy from the World Economic Forum .They didn't even bother to take it down till 2024 🤣

Sources